PUNE: This winter season, which is between December 2018 to February 2019, will be slightly warmer.
The forecast was given by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in the recently published ‘Consensus Outlook for the Winter Season (December 2018 to February 2019)’.
In the report, Met experts have highlighted that weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely to form during the winter season and continue through the spring season.
The consensus climate outlook for the 2018-2019 winter season was prepared through the exchange of expert assessment among a team of experts from all the countries of South Asia.
Speaking to Sakal Times, D Sivanand Pai, Head of the Office of Climate Research and Services, IMD Pune, said that forecast mentions that this winter season will be warmer.
“The forecast states that normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely over most parts of the country. Also, along with the drop in temperature, there will be above normal precipitation in northern parts of South Asia,” said Pai.
The report also states that more rainfall is likely between December and February in north Afghanistan, north Pakistan, north India and some areas of northern Myanmar. Also, below normal precipitation is likely over some southern parts of the region consisting of southeastern part of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Remaining parts of the region including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal are likely to experience normal precipitation during this season said the report.
ENSO CONDITIONS
The report states that currently warm El Niño and Southern Oscillations (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing in the Pacific Ocean. There is a strong consensus among experts that weak El Niño conditions are likely to develop and continue through the winter season.
It is recognised that in addition to sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over equatorial Pacific, other regional and global factors can also affect the precipitation and temperature patterns over the region, mentions the report.
Speaking to Sakal Times, Dr AK Srivastava, Head of Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group, IMD Pune, said that the latest forecasts from global climate models indicate a strong probability of weak El Niño conditions to develop and continue through winter season.
“El Niño has an effect on summers as well as the monsoon. However, so far, the studies have reflected that it does not affect winters. After a few months of observation of El Niño conditions, it will be clearer to predict its impact on the weather,” said Srivastava.
