PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued the second stage Long Range Forecast update for the 2019 Southwest Monsoon. According to the IMD, rainfall over the country as a whole for the season June to September is most likely to be normal, that is, 96 per cent to 104 per cent of long period average (LPA). There are 41 per cent chances of a normal monsoon this year, said the IMD.
As per the forecast, quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA. Region wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 94 per cent of LPA over north-west India and 100 per cent of LPA over central India, which also includes Maharashtra.
As per the forecast, rainfall will be 97 per cent of LPA over the southern peninsula and 91 per cent of LPA over northeast India. As per the IMD, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 95 per cent of its LPA during July and 99 per cent of LPA during August.
EL NINO CONDITIONS
The weak El Niño conditions developed in the Equatorial Pacific in the early part of this year persisted through May. The latest forecast indicates weak El Niño conditions, which may continue during the monsoon season with reduced intensity. As per IMD, some models even suggest neutral ENSO conditions during the later part of the monsoon season.
A strong El Nino is believed to have an adverse effect on the Southwest Monsoon. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and persist during the monsoon season.
From previous years, it is observed that positive IOD has a positive impact on the Southwest Monsoon.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON ADVANCEMENT
As per the IMD, the Southwest Monsoon is very likely to advance further into extreme southern parts of the Arabian Sea and some more parts of Maldives and Comorin area, southwest, southeast and the east-central Bay of Bengal till June 2.
“Thereafter, monsoon is likely to strengthen further and set over Kerala around June 6 as predictions made by IMD earlier,” said an official.
AK Srivastava, Head of the Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group at IMD, Pune, said as per IMD predictions the monsoon will reach Kerala by June 6.
“It is expected to reach Maharashtra after 6 -7 days of reaching Kerala. The latest forecast also shows that the central India rainfall is good. Earlier, the conditions were showing that may be Maharashtra would not get good rains this year. But now the conditions are good and Maharashtra will receive good rainfall,” said Srivastava.
