The precision strikes by 12 Mirage 2000 fighters of the IAF in the wee hours of February 26, 2019 on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror camps in Balakot will prove to be a turning point in India’s fight against terror emanating out of Pakistan. The reasons are not far too seek, as most of the issues are in public domain.
Pakistan’s already beleaguered economy cannot sustain an all-out escalation of hostilities with India. India had, even during the surgical strikes post Uri, caught Pakistan napping and achieved total surprise. This is a big embarrassment for the army in Pakistan. The world opinion is heavily loaded against Pakistan after the dastardly Pulwama incident.
Indian political leadership has changed, it has demonstrated firm and steely resolve to avenge acts of terror abetted by Pakistan. Kashmir is at a point where almost the entire terror leadership has been eliminated.
The nuclear bluff by Pakistan has been called-off by India repeatedly now. The Indian Armed Forces are a professional, well-trained and potent force which always delivers when called to act. It is the political leadership which has to take a call. The Generals, ISI and terror masters like Hafiz Saeed, Masood Azhar, Syed Salahuddin also referred to as the deep state, are in the habit of using terror proxies from poor families.
The generals in Pakistan own vast tracts of land, are into drug trafficking, running factories and various commercial establishments. Their children study in expensive business schools in Europe, UK and USA, none of them would want to give up this cushy lifestyle and go to war.
DYNAMICS IN KASHMIR
As a fallout of surgical strikes 2.0, the emerging situation in the valley would be:
The terrorists in Kashmir swing from one extreme to the other, with this, the message has gone across about the might and resolve of the Indian state. In the coming days, there will be more surrenders by terrorists or more information from locals regarding pinpoint location of terror havens within Kashmir. The fight has entered its decisive phase in Kashmir, now or never is the key. Funding from abroad will dry up with terrorists on the run. The myth that India as a state is soft and pusillanimous, unable to take action against Pakistan will give way to a starker reality that Kashmir’s interests can best be taken care by India alone.
FALLOUT IN PAKISTAN
The immediate reaction from Pakistan is likely to be as follows:
Pakistan’s establishment will resort to a lot of drum beating and raking up war hysteria but this will amount to nothing. They are looking for a face saving formula to get them out of this mess of their own making. Public mood and opinion in Pakistan is against a war with India, because they know the consequences. Either Imran Khan, the PM or General Qamar Bajwa will have to leave his post in the days to come as within Pakistan there will be tremendous pressure on both. Pakistan’s economy will continue to flounder with balance of payments crisis aggravating. Pakistan will be forced to shut terror factories due to constant threat of an action by India and continued international pressure. The air strike is the beginning of a new dawn in India where the citizens feel avenged, the martyrs’ families perceive a sense of closure to their pain and the political dispensation demonstrated resolve and resoluteness by taking action against terror targets. Rest they say, will go down in history, as the Armed Forces’ another special day at the office.