Coronavirus: A multidimensional threat

Coronavirus: A multidimensional threat

Biological weapons have a long history. They have been used even before the period of World Wars. In fact, it was the chemical weapons which ‘stole the show’ during the first World War and this war was also famous as the Chemist’s War. The issues of biological weapons have suddenly come to the forefront after a long duration during the ongoing Covoid-19 crisis. Coronavirus is not the first disease suspected to be a bioweapon in recent times. 

Post 9/11 Anthrax attacks in the United States, which ended up killing five people and was an act of intentional use of anthrax spores, any subsequent disease spread gets normally suspected as a human creation. Particularly, since the coronavirus had its origins in the country like China, the ‘conspiracy theory’ that this virus is a bioweapon has many takers. 

The Chinese state has an ‘image’ issue, for long. This is because people are not yet ready to forget China’s chequered past and incidences like China’s response to the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests are still fresh in the minds of the people. 

Unfortunately, social and electronic media are circulating various unconfirmed stories. All this is adding to further confusion.    

At present, the political view appears to be gaining the upper hand, and not much attention is given in regards to technical realities to decide about the exact origin of the threat. In regards to the spread of COVID-19, two conspiracy theories are doing rounds. There are some politicians in the United States (US) who have expressed a view that the coronavirus was bioengineered in a Chinese lab. 

To counter this view, some Chinese officials have mentioned that US agencies have bioengineered the virus. Present Donald Trump started with his rhetoric that corona is a Chinese virus but now has changed his view and has decided to call this as a Made in China threat. Today the US (particularly the New York City) has emerged as a COVID-19 epicentre. 

Analysts have not found much of substance in the various conspiracy theories floated so far in regards to the origin of this threat that has found much of traction in the public mind. Earlier it was seen that Japan and particularly China has managed to control the infection totally. However, that is not the case any longer, and some new infections are getting reported from these places.   

Use of viruses as a weapon has a long history. Historical records indicate that during the war fought in North America between France and England (1754- 1767). Both the sides had Indian troops. An English General, Sir Jeffery Amherst is known to have secretly provided the Indians loyal to the French with blankets infected with smallpox virus. 

Japan is known to have made a significant amount of investments in the biological warfare programme during the Second World War period. Their Unit 731 was majorly involved in this programme. They are known to have performed many experiments by infecting the human targets with the viruses during 1932-1945. They were essentially working on the biological warfare agents like botulism and anthrax. Japanese were probably also responsible for the 1940 plague epidemic in China and Manchuria. They had used low-flying aircrafts to drop plague-infected fleas over China. 

In recent history, the most famous incidence of bio-attack is the 1984 Rajneesh attack. During that period Rajneesh cult was operating from Oregon in the US. Some of its members had deliberately contaminated the salad bars at ten local restaurants with Salmonella. This led to the food poisoning of 751 individuals. This attack had not resulted in any deaths and also that was not the purpose. This act was carried out to stop the people from a particular locality to go for voting in the local elections in which the few Rajneesh cult members were also the candidates. 

In regards to COVID-19, there is also a view that the main reason for the disease spread could be due to an accidental release from a laboratory in Wuhan province, where scientists were studying bat coronaviruses. Actually, at this point in time, it would be difficult to exactly claim what had led to the spared of this virus. 

Three options are getting discussed: natural outbreak, accident release from the laboratory and intentional biological attack (either by China or by the US). People are found mainly fixing their views based on personal opinions, political positions and scientific understanding. Even for the scientific community to undertake a systematic and logical analysis at this point in time looks difficult owing to the data limitations. 

It is a reality that the location of virus origin was in China, and the region of Wuhan is problematic even for the non-conspiracy theorists. As per some reports, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention is located just 280 meters from the Hunan Seafood Market. Many claim this market as the source of the original outbreak. There is a biosafety level-four (BSL-4) laboratory situated in Wuhan. 

At present, such a facility is the most high-ranking facility available globally. Only in the facilities like this, which maintain the highest level of security, the research could be carried out on dangerous, potentially life-threatening agents. Some coronaviruses related research was probably happening in this facility. However, there is no direct evidence to conclude that the virus could have jumped from the laboratory. Scientists, by comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains have concluded that the virus has originated through natural processes only.   

The spike protein of coronavirus is found on the surface of the virus and allows the virus to bind to specific receptors on the surface of the human cell. This is considered as the first step towards infecting the cell. After the recent infections in Wuhan, scientists have found that the type of binding witnessed could happen only as of the result of natural selection and not as the product of intentional genetic engineering. Also, the molecular structure of the virus is copybook and not bioengineered. Hence, there is a general acceptance by many experts that the disease outbreak has happened naturally.   

Right now, the global focus is towards identifying a correct treatment for coronavirus infection and also towards the development of a vaccine. In the past, the world has witnessed diseases like smallpox which have taken lakhs of lives. 

However, over a period of time scientists have been successful in finding a vaccine for this and today smallpox stands totally eradicated. 

Unfortunately, during the period between the spread of infection and development of the vaccine, many lives get lost, and the world is at present in the phase of lives getting lost. 

It is also important to know about the exact origins of the pandemic; this is because the knowledge about how the virus has jumped from animals to humans is important to understand the risk of future re-emergence events. In the case of COVID-19, there is the need for the availability of the correct information in regards to the origin, further progress and asymptomatic character of the disease. Also, there is a need to know about the nature of mutations taking place. All this could help in early breakthrough to find a correct medical treatment to contain the pandemic.

(Dr Ajey Lele is a Senior Fellow at MP-IDSA, New Delhi. The views are personal.)

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