Pune: The onset of the monsoon over South Andaman Sea took place on May 18; however, it has not advanced since then. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to be the same at the Car-Nicobar in Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Weather experts attributed this phenomenon to weaker currents and dominant extratropical circulation.
IMD Climate Research & Services Head, DS Pai said though for the past two days, the NLM has not changed, it will reach Kerala as forecasted. Many favourable conditions are needed for advancement of the monsoon. A few days back, there was heavy rain in Africa. So, the monsoon is still there. Once it enters the Indian Ocean, it will advance as forecasted, said Pai.
The Indian southwest monsoon starts its journey over ‘Mascarenes High’ near Madagascar, Africa in the southern hemisphere.
The southwest monsoon winds initially proceed westward. As they cross the equator, the spinning of the earth on its axis causes it to deflect towards the north.
Speaking to Sakal Times, AK Srivastava, Head of Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group at IMD, Pune, said the monsoon shall advance after May 22 from the present NLM.
“There is Mascarenes High belt in the Indian Ocean, which has strong currents. But it was weak until now. As it becomes strong, the monsoon will advance. It will take two more days. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is another factor but is not very crucial. It has a role on the land and does not play a very dominant role on sea,” said Srivastava. He added that extratropical circulation is still dominant.
“This is a natural phenomenon. We will have to wait and watch. There is a possibility that till May 22, the current may strengthen and the northern limit may move,” added Srivastava.
