India among the 15 countries that are in 'danger zone': Research

ST Staff
Wednesday, 10 June 2020

The analysis says there are 15 high-risk nations that could witness a surge in new cases if lockdown norms are relaxed.

India is amongst the 15 countries in high-risk zones, where there's a possibility of a second wave of coronavirus, according to an analysis by securities research. The analysis includes 45 major economies, considering the acceleration of cases and mobility, it will analysis how people's movement will impact new cases.

The analysis says there are 15 high-risk nations that could witness a surge in new cases if lockdown norms are relaxed. In fact, it also says in 'extreme cases', there are high possibilities of re-imposition of strict lockdown rules.

The analysis report read, "Our visual tool has yielded a mixed bag of results: 17 countries are on track with respect to reopening economies with no sign of second wave; 13 countries showing some tentative warning signs; and 15 countries in the danger zone of being most at risk of a second wave."

As per the report, while countries around the world gear up to revive economic activities and relax most of the lockdown norms, those nations are open to either of the two scenarios: The good scenario, 'A country or US state experiences a quick recovery in people mobility. Lockdown measures become relaxed, and businesses resume operations with minimal increases in the number of new daily cases, resulting in ease in public fear and a further increase in people mobility. As the number of new cases declines, a positive feedback loop kicks in,' read the report analysis.

In the second scenario, the analysis reveals that 'the (bad) scenario is characterised by a much 'flatter' curve. The reopening of the economy is associated with an acceleration in the number of new daily infections, growing public fear and ceasing people mobility; in extreme cases, lockdowns would be re-imposed."

In the report, 45 major economies have been divided into three sections: some are 'on track', few are facing 'warning signs' and the remaining are in 'danger zone'.

India, Chile, Pakistan and Indonesia are economies between low-to-middle income, they fall under danger zone, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, Sweden, Singapore, South Africa and Canada are high-income groups, and countries like Germany, United States and the United Kingdom might be at risk, and facing 'warning signs'. Although there are countries like France, Italy and South Korea, who are back on track with their economies.

At present, India's 'unlocking' plan may be fatal for the nation, as the country is seeing a spike in cases since the beginning of lockdown 5.0. WHO states, 'it is not the time for any country to take its foot off the pedal' and urges all the nations to take proper precautions to contain the spread of the virus.

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