Monsoon to be normal: IMD

Namrata Devikar
Tuesday, 16 April 2019

Speaking to Sakal Times, DS Pai, Head at Climate Research and Services at IMD, Pune, said this time the prediction is based on two models.

PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued its first ‘Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall’. 

The forecast stated that the 2019 monsoon season over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD also forecasted weak El Niño conditions during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

The forecast stated that quantitatively, rainfall in the monsoon season, which is between June and September, is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. 

Speaking to Sakal Times, DS Pai, Head at Climate Research and Services at IMD, Pune, said this time the prediction is based on two models.

“The forecast based on the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (CFS) model suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2019 monsoon season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 94 per cent (with an error of five per cent) of the LPA. Also, according to the forecast based on the Operational Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS). it is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA, which we considered,” said Pai.

As per the forecast, the 2019 southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be near normal. However, there is very less chance for the monsoon rainfall to be above normal or excess, stated IMD. 

The forecast by the met department stated that the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial for farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif season.

The forecast probability is 32 per cent.

THE EL NINO CONDITIONS
Speaking to Sakal Times, Anupam Kashyapi, Head of Weather, IMD Pune, the impact of El Nino on the monsoon will be weak. “The forecast predicts that there are at present, weak El Niño conditions which are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts various climate models indicates that such conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season but with reduced intensity in the later part of the monsoon season. Hence, though it is still early, as per current conditions, the impact of El Nino on monsoon will be weak,” said Kashyapi. 

As per the forecast issued by IMD, at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from the models indicate positive IOD conditions development likely during the monsoon season. According to weather experts, positive IOD conditions tend to associate with the normal monsoon over India.

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