Moderate probability of El Nino: IMD

Namrata Devikar
Sunday, 24 March 2019

Speaking to Sakal Times, weather experts noted that El Nino conditions are a major factor on the southwest monsoon. AK Srivastava, Head, Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group at IMD, Pune branch, said there is a high probability of detecting El Nino conditions in the coming months.

Pune: According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, there is a moderate probability of El Nino conditions developing in the coming months. El Nino has a negative impact on the southwest monsoon.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin for March issued by the IMD stated the probability forecast for ENSO indicating a maximum probability for El Niño conditions from March-April-May to May-June-July seasons. The bulletin further states that nearly equal probabilities are likely for neutral ENSO and El Niño conditions from June-July-August season till the end of the forecast period.

Speaking to Sakal Times, weather experts noted that El Nino conditions are a major factor on the southwest monsoon. AK Srivastava, Head, Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group at IMD, Pune branch, said there is a high probability of detecting El Nino conditions in the coming months.

“In the first part of the season, there is a possibility of El Nino conditions developing. However, it is still too early to say anything. Other weather models across the globe are detecting moderate El Nino conditions. By the end of April, it will be more clear for us to say,” said Srivastava.

Moreover, the bulletin stated that the probability forecast for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indicated nearly equal probabilities for neutral and positive IOD conditions from March-April-May to May-June-July seasons. However, an increased probability for neutral IOD conditions is seen from June-July-August season onwards.

The IOD influences the Indian southwest monsoon and also significantly reduces the impact of ENSO. 
Highest and lowest temperaturesOn Saturday, the highest maximum temperature recorded across the country was 41.4 degrees Celsius in Anantpur, Rayalaseema. The lowest minimum temperature recorded across India was at 10 degrees Celsius in Karnal, Haryana. Whereas in Maharashtra, the highest maximum temperature recorded was in Solapur at 40.7 degrees Celsius. Also, the lowest minimum temperature recorded in the State was 14.7 degrees Celsius in Mahabaleshwar. Pune reported a maximum temperature of 37.6 degrees Celsius and a minimum of 16.1. 

IMD has forecast that the maximum temperatures are likely to rise gradually by two to three degrees Celsius over major parts of the country till March 28. 

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