IMD predicts normal monsoon this year

Namrata Devikar
Thursday, 31 May 2018

Monsoon is likely to reach Konkan and Goa by June 6 to 8

Pune: Spelling out good news for farmers and the Indian economy, the India Meteorological Department on Wednesday issued the Second Stage Long Range Forecast of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole predicting a normal monsoon season this year. 

A day after the monsoon hit the Kerala coast sending positive notes across the country, the Second Stage Long Range Forecast says the country would receive monthly rainfall as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of rains in its Long Period Average (LPA) during July and 94 per cent of LPA during August. 

IMD stated that region-wise, seasonal rainfall is likely to be 100 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 99 per cent over Central India, 95 per cent over South Peninsula and 93 per cent over North-East India.

Maharashtra comes under central India region of the forecast. A statement released by IMD on Wednesday said that the latest experimental forecast based on the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests that the monsoon season rainfall during the 2018 monsoon (June to September) average over the country as a whole is likely to be 102 per cent with an error of +- 4 per cent of LPA.
It said that quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA.

According to the forecast, the moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific in later part of the last year have weakened to weak La Nina conditions early this year and currently have turned to neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

The MMCFS and other global climate models indicate conditions over the Pacific likely to continue to be neutral during most part of the monsoon season and turn to weak El Nino conditions after the monsoon season.

It said that the warm neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. 

The MMCFS and other global climate models indicate weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and continue to persist till the early part of the post-monsoon season.

Monsoon is likely to reach Konkan and Goa by June 6 to 8.

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