IMD predicts favourable conditions for monsoon

Namrata Devikar
Thursday, 15 March 2018

“According to the observations so far, there is no hindrance for monsoon as La Nina is neutral so far and so the ENSO neutral condition is persisting,” said Srivastava.

PUNE: Although monsoon is two months away, there is good news from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which in its initial prediction has highlighted favourable conditions for monsoon from Pacific and the Indian Ocean side this year. 

In the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin for the month of March, it was noted that the favourable conditions for monsoon will persist as per data available currently. 

According to the monthly time series of Niño from March 2017 to February 2018, ENSO neutral conditions persisted till August 2017. This turned out to be cool ENSO neutral conditions in the month of September 2017, which later turned to weak La Niña conditions in the month of October 2017. During November 2017, La Niña conditions were strengthened further, which is from weak to moderate La Niña conditions and reached its peak in the month of January 2018. And since February 2018, La Nina conditions are existing,” stated the bulletin.

Speaking to Sakal Times, AK Srivastava, Head at the Climate Monitoring and Analysis Group at IMD, Pune, said that La Nina condition is good for the monsoon. “According to the observations so far, there is no hindrance for monsoon as La Nina is neutral so far and so the ENSO neutral condition is persisting,” said Srivastava.

The bulletin further stated the probability forecast for ENSO indicates a maximum possibility of La Niña conditions likely to continue during the entire forecast period. The probability for neutral ENSO conditions is likely to increase from August-September-October (ASO) season.

IOD CONDITIONS
According to the bulletin, since April 2017, positive IOD conditions prevailed, which turned to neutral IOD conditions in the month of September 2017 and continued up to February 2018.

Speaking about the impact of IOD, Srivastava highlighted that IOD positive is favourable for the monsoon.

“But the amplitude of IOD is very less as compared to La Nina. However, IOD cannot be forecasted this early. More negative IOD affects monsoon adversely. There are also other factors that govern the favourable conditions for the monsoon,” said Srivastava.     

The probability forecast for IOD indicates nearly equal probabilities for positive, neutral and negative IOD conditions are likely for March-April-May (MAM) and April-May-June (AMJ) seasons. Thereafter, probability for negative IOD conditions is likely to increase for further forecasted season.

In the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole bulletin, it was noted that the favourable conditions for monsoon will persist as per data available. 

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