Pune: According to India Meteorological Department's (IMD) seasonal outlook for April-May-June, the seasonal average temperature in most of the subdivisions is likely to be cooler than last year. Normal heatwave conditions are likely to prevail in the core heatwave zone during the season.
The heatwave zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana. The zone also covers meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Vidarbha, madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Speaking to Sakal Times, Dr DS Pai, Head, Climate Prediction at Climate Research Division of IMD, Pune, said that the temperature for the season will be lower in the southern part of the country. “There are various reason. So far, the models are indicating this. There might be active rainfall during this time because of which the average temperature will be cooler than last year,” said Pai.
This year, IMD had issued a temperature outlook for the pre-monsoon season from March to May on February 28, in which it was forecast that warmer than normal temperatures are likely during the season in all meteorological sub-divisions except sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. After various observations by the IMD, the officials have concluded that overall, the April-May-June seasonal temperature anomalies are likely to be colder than those observed during the corresponding period of 2017.
IMD officials noted that the seasonal average maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal in Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh. They are likely to be between 0.5 degree and one degree Celsius in Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Remaining subdivisions are likely to experience near normal maximum temperature anomalies.
The season averaged minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal in Punjab, Harayana Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. They are likely to be between 0.5 and one degree Celsius in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra and Gujarat.
Speaking about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), IMD officials said that the current sea surface temperature conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific suggest prevalence of La Niña conditions. According to IMD, however, the atmospheric conditions are not suggestive of La Niña conditions. The latest forecast indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least during the forecast period. However, forecasts from some of the global climate centres indicate weakening of La Nina conditions from the spring season onwards. Pai noted that the ENSO conditions are neutral for this time. “The mid-April forecast for the monsoon will be updated soon. However, so far the seasonal outlook shows that the conditions are neutral,” said Pai.
MORE UNSEASONAL RAIN
* Rainfall accompanied with hailstorm in Kolhapur was reported on Thursday.
* Rainfall predicted on April 6 and 7 by IMD at central Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha along with strong winds and thunderstorm.