Pune: According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for July, El Nino conditions will not be affecting the monsoon this year. However, from September-October-November, the probability of El Nino conditions is highest and above 50 per cent till further predicted, said IMD officials.
The bulletin further states that the monthly time series of Niño anomalies for the last 12 months, i.e. from July 2017 to June 2018 suggests that ENSO neutral conditions persisted till October 2017. From November 2017 to March 2018, La Niña conditions have prevailed. Since April 2018, La Nina conditions turned into ENSO neutral conditions and continued in June 2018.
Speaking to Sakal Times, DS Pai, Head, Climate Prediction at Climate Research Division of IMD, Pune said that the bulletin indicates that the ENSO conditions will not be affecting monsoon the season.
“The conditions until August are normal and so there would be no effect on the rains this season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean indicate maximum probability for negative IOD conditions during July-August-September to September-October-November seasons. From October-November-December season onwards neutral IOD conditions have the highest probability till the end of forecast period,” said Pai.
The bulletin also states that the prevailing positive IOD conditions turned to neutral IOD conditions in September 2017 and continued up to June 2018.
When asked about ENSO conditions above 50 per cent probability in the month of September-October-November and if that would affect monsoon next year, Pai said that it is very early to predict the rainfall and the impact of ENSO conditions on monsoon season next year.
According to IMD, the Southwest Monsoon has been subdued over Saurashtra, Kutch, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. State to experience rainfall till July 28.