Recent developments indicate that all is not well with our relations with Nepal. India needs to play pro-active role to win the confidence of Nepal’s leadership and heart of the people. The scenario with Maldives is also not encouraging. ‘Neighbourhood first’ needs to be given prime importance.
The recent two moves of Nepal have surprised Indian leadership and diplomats. Nepal, at the last minute, pulled out of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation (BIMSTEC) military exercise held in Pune.
Around the same time, Nepal signed Transit Protocol with China, which would give Nepal access to Chinese ports. As Nepal is a landlocked country it has to depend on neighbouring countries having ports. Nepal mainly imports and exports from Kolkata port and the road route is Kolkata to Raxaul and then to Nepal’s Birganj.
After backing out from BIMSTEC, Nepal will have joint exercise with China (Sagarmatha Friendship 2) at Chengdu for 12 days from September 17 to 28.
The BIMSTEC exercise was announced by Indian PM at the BIMSTEC summit held in Kathmandu in August. India has already expressed its displeasure with Nepal over its not joining BIMSTEC exercise. It is believed that Nepal government took this decision following criticism from some influential leaders of ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP).
This can be interpreted as a strategic shift of Nepal’s policy from India to China. Nepal’s PM KP Oli is believed to taking this line to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India. Oli is also co-chairman of the party along with Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’.
India and Nepal’s relations got tense especially in late 2015 when Nepal promulgated its new Constitution. The people from Terai called as Madhesi were not happy with certain provisions of the new Constitution. The Madhesis have ‘roti beti ka rishta’ (ties of food and family) with the people of Bihar and UP. They also speak Maithili and Bhojpuri. They started blockade at many places but main concentration was at Birganj. It affected Nepal badly. The leadership and people of Nepal felt there was an Indian hand behind the blockade. It was one of the worst periods of Nepal as they faced severe scarcity of medicines, fertilizers and oil.
The economic blockade also gave opportunity to China to increase their presence in Nepal by way of investment. Oli was PM then. He and Prachanda fought elections together last year and won. Subsequently Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and Prachanda-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) merged their parties and formed NCP. Shockingly, the news of transit protocol was leaked when Prachanda was visiting India. He met Indian PM Narendra Modi and Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj. He expressed satisfaction after meeting the Indian leaders.
Nepal and China finalised protocol of their transit deal two years after signing Nepal-China Transit and Transportation Agreement in 2016. The agreement was signed after blockade with the thinking that dependence on only India for supply is not a good idea.
China has agreed to let Nepal use Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang and Zhanjiang open seaports and Lanzhou, Lhasa and Xigatse dry ports for trading with third countries. At the same time using Chinese ports will not be feasible for Nepal mainly because of distance and difficult terrain. The transport cost will increase and it will also take a long time to reach. It will take some years for China to build their road and rail network connecting Nepal. The Indian ports are closer and goods can be supplied in a shorter time.
The influence of China is increasing in the South Asian countries. China is seen as Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’. China is active in Maldives, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. India needs to play pro-active role in the region by making efforts to revive SAARC.
Smaller and least developed countries of the region need an effective regional grouping for their progress. Historically and culturally Nepal is close to India and serious efforts need to be taken.
