Pune: According to the Long Range Forecast (LRF) of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the 2018 Southwest Monsoon rainfall, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA). There is a low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.
The forecast was issued on Monday.
The maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall is 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA.
IMD officials from the city said the present weak La Nina conditions would turn to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions before the beginning of the monsoon, which would have a neutral effect.
El Niño events are associated with warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, whereas La Niña events are associated with a sustained cooling of these same areas.
The LRF 2018 states that moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year and started weakening in the early part of this year. Currently they have turned to weak La Nina conditions. The latest forecasts indicate conditions over the Pacific to turn to neutral ENSO conditions before the beginning of the monsoon season, which will not have any positive or negative effect on monsoon.
Speaking to Sakal Times, AK Srivastava, Head of the climate monitoring and analysis group at IMD, Pune said the La Nina is good for monsoon.
“The latest forecast states that there is no hindrance for the monsoon as ENSO neutral conditions are persisting at the beginning of the monsoon. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions can be favourable for the monsoon while negative would not be favorable,” said Srivastava.
The LRF has predicted that at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and has indicated weak negative IOD conditions during the middle of the monsoon season.
Speaking about the rainfall forecast of the specific regions, Srivastava said it is too early to say something concrete.
“Maharashtra is included in the central India and the forecast for specific regions will be released only in June,” added Srivastava.
- Pune recorded a maximum temperature of 39.2 degrees Celsius and a minimum temperature of 22.3 degrees Celsius on Monday.
- Light drizzles were witnessed in Hinjawadi, Balewadi and Wakad areas. Most parts of the city witnessed cloudy weather in the evening on Monday.