Pune: The rainfall pattern in the state is mostly excess till date this year, which indicates that it has rained in abundance. Only the Vidarbha region has received deficient rain. However, this area is likely to receive good rains by the end of this season, said AK Srivastava, head of climate monitoring and analysis group at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune.
In June, Konkan and Goa received 20 per cent rain in excess followed by Madhya Maharashtra, which got 31 per cent more rain than the average for the month while it rained 27 per cent in excess in Marathwada. Vidarbha, however, recorded 12 per cent deficient rainfall in June.
“The monsoon is active and we expect it will be active in the coming days too. Though there is a deficit in Vidarbha, we expect that rainfall will be better and as predicted in surplus in the coming month,” said Srivastava.
In the first week of June, normal rainfall was recorded in Vidarbha and Konkan and Goa region. During the same week, Madhya Maharashtra received deficit rain, whereas Marathwada, which is known to be drought-prone area received.
In the second week of June, all four regions received rainfall in excess. Normal rainfall was recorded in Madhya Marathwada, Vidarbha and Konkan and Goa in the third week of June. In the last week of June, Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra received an excess of rainfall, whereas Vidarbha and Marathwada experienced normal rainfall.
Speaking about the El Nino effect, Srivastava said the previous weather conditions led us to predict that El Nino might affect the rainfall. “However, the recently updated forecast shows that El Nino won’t have any impact on rainfall. Earlier, there was a possibility of El Nino but now it has subsided. This is a major factor that defines how much rain a place shall receive. Since the condition has subsided now, we predicted 98 per cent rainfall this season,” he added.
He said in 1997, the El Nino effect was the biggest in the century. “However, the rainfall in 1997 was normal, around 102 per cent. El Nino affects six cases out of 10. Though this is a big factor, it does not always dictate if there is poor rainfall,” said Srivastava.